Toni Nadal, Rafael Nadal’s uncle and former coach, declared in his *El País* column on June 30, 2025, “I don’t see anyone who can seriously challenge Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon,” positioning the two-time defending champion as the overwhelming favorite for the 2025 title. Alcaraz, the world No. 2, enters Wimbledon on an 18-match win streak, having won Rome, Roland Garros, and Queen’s Club, with a 90% win ratio at SW19 (18-2), second only to Bjorn Borg and Pete Sampras in the Open Era, per *Outlook India*. His grass-court dominance, marked by four titles, including Queen’s 2023 and 2025, and a refined serve averaging 12 aces per match at Queen’s, makes him a formidable force, per *BBC Sport*.[]
However, Toni’s claim faces scrutiny given recent upsets and Alcaraz’s shaky first-round performance against Fabio Fognini (7-5, 6-7(5), 7-5, 2-6, 6-3), where he lost serve five times and made 36 unforced errors in a four-and-a-half-hour battle, per *BBC Sport*. John McEnroe called Alcaraz “flat as a pancake,” suggesting vulnerability, per *The Mirror*. Potential challengers include:
– **Novak Djokovic**: The seven-time champion, ranked No. 4, remains a threat despite a recovering knee. His 3-5 head-to-head against Alcaraz, including losses in the 2023 and 2024 Wimbledon finals, shows competitiveness, per *Wikipedia*. Toni Nadal ranks him as Alcaraz’s primary rival, per *Puntodebreak.com*.
– **Jannik Sinner**: The world No. 1, who lost to Alcaraz in the 2025 French Open final (five hours, 29 minutes), has a game suited for grass but struggles with nerves, per Toni Nadal. His 6-4, 6-3, 6-0 Wimbledon opener against Luca Nardi signals intent, per *ATP Tour*.[]
– **Holger Rune**: Despite a first-round loss to Nicolas Jarry, Rune’s 7-2 Wimbledon record and grass-court potential make him a dark horse, per *SI.com*. He believes he could beat Jarry “nine out of ten times” under normal conditions, per *Puntodebreak.com*.[
– **Jack Draper**: Britain’s No. 1, at No. 18, is a long shot at 12/1 odds, but his 2024 Queen’s win over Alcaraz shows promise, per *Sporting Life*.[](https://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/news/can-anyone-stop-carlos-alcaraz-at-wimbledon-two-time-champion-is-on-a-personal-record-winning-streak-after-triumphing-at-queens/226223)
Early exits of seeds like Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas have opened the draw, per *The Guardian*, but Alcaraz’s speed, improved serve, and court positioning—described as “lightning quick” by John Lloyd—make him tough to beat, per *BBC Sport*. Still, Oliver Tarvet, his second-round opponent, boldly claimed, “I’m sure I can beat anyone… Alcaraz is no exception,” per *Puntodebreak.com*. While Toni’s confidence in Alcaraz is backed by his form, the unpredictable nature of grass and recent upsets suggest a challenge is possible.
