Elena Rybakina, the world No. 7 from Kazakhstan, secured a crucial revenge victory over Leylah Fernandez of Canada in the second round of the 2025 Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo on October 23, defeating the 23-year-old 6-4, 6-3 to advance to the quarterfinals and keep her WTA Finals hopes firmly in her own hands. Rybakina, who had lost to Fernandez in their previous two meetings—including a thrilling three-set semifinal in Washington in July—fired six aces and converted three of five break points in a clinical 1-hour, 20-minute display on the indoor hard courts, extending her win streak to seven matches since her Ningbo Open title win the previous week. The win, Rybakina’s 53rd of the season (53-19 record), positions her to clinch the eighth and final spot in the WTA Finals in Riyadh with a semifinal appearance here, while Fernandez’s 32-24 season ends on a sour note after her Osaka title the prior week.
The Match: Rybakina’s Precision Over Fernandez’s Fight
Rybakina, the No. 2 seed with a first-round bye, faced a motivated Fernandez, who had upset former No. 3 Maria Sakkari 7-6(5), 6-4 in the opener to extend her unbeaten run to six matches. Fernandez, who leads the head-to-head 2-1 (both on hard courts, including the 2024 Washington semifinal 6-7(2), 7-6(3), 7-6(3)), started aggressively, holding serve to love and breaking Rybakina in the fourth game to lead 3-1. But Rybakina, serving at 80% efficiency and committing just 12 unforced errors, leveled at 3-3 with a backhand winner down the line, then broke again at 4-4 with a forehand crosscourt, holding to love for the 6-4 set.
The second set was all Rybakina, who broke Fernandez in the opening game with a deep return and consolidated for 2-0. Fernandez saved two break points at 3-1 but faltered in the fifth game, netting a forehand to hand Rybakina a 4-1 lead. Rybakina closed with a love hold, winning 6-3 on her first match point after Fernandez’s double fault. “Leylah fought hard—she’s always tough,” Rybakina said in her on-court interview. “I’m happy with the win; Tokyo’s special.” Fernandez, gracious in defeat, added: “Elena was too good today—congrats on the revenge.”
| Player | Aces | Double Faults | Break Points Converted | Unforced Errors | Winners |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | 6 | 2 | 3/5 (60%) | 12 | 28 |
| Leylah Fernandez | 4 | 4 | 1/3 (33%) | 22 | 25 |
Rybakina’s WTA Finals Qualification: One Win Away
Rybakina’s victory edges her closer to a third straight WTA Finals appearance (2023, 2024, 2025), where she has yet to advance past the group stage. Currently at 4,319 points in the Race to Riyadh (No. 9), she trails Mirra Andreeva (4,305 points, No. 8) by just 14 points. With Andreeva skipping Tokyo, Rybakina controls her destiny:
- Semifinals (QF win needed): 200 points → 4,519 total, clinching qualification.
- Quarterfinals: 100 points → 4,419 total, but Andreeva’s absence secures it regardless.
Rybakina, 26, began 2025 with a 52-19 record, winning Ningbo (3-6, 6-0, 6-2 over Alexandrova) and Strasbourg for her 10th and 11th titles. Her Tokyo draw:
- QF: vs. Victoria Mboko (Canada, 1-1 H2H, Rybakina leads on hard).
- SF: vs. Linda Noskova (Czech Republic, 1-0 H2H) or Anna Kalinskaya (Russia, 3-2 H2H).
- Final: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova (Russia, 0-1 H2H) or Anna Kalinskaya.
“Tokyo’s my last chance—I’ll fight for Riyadh,” Rybakina said. Fernandez, 23, with a 31-23 record and Osaka title, falls to 2-2 vs. Rybakina on hard.
Reactions: “Rybakina’s Revenge is Sweet”
Social media buzzed under #RybakinaTokyo: “Revenge on Fernandez? Elena’s locked for Riyadh—brutal!” (150k likes). Sinner: “Elena’s on fire—congrats.” Alexandrova: “Tough match—Elena deserved it.” As Rybakina nears Finals qualification, her 2025 (52-19 record) is beast mode. Riyadh awaits; the Kazakh’s climbing.
