Melbourne, Australia — Alex de Minaur’s Australian Open prospects have received a major boost, with first-round opponent Matteo Berrettini forced to withdraw, providing a crucial reprieve for the Australian hope who had been dealt one of the most challenging draws of his career.
The Horror Draw
The Australian number one entered his home grand slam with his highest-ever seeding at No. 6, but the draw ceremony offered little celebration. De Minaur was pitted against former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini in the first round at Melbourne Park, immediately signaling a brutal path ahead.
The road didn’t ease from there. The draw included a potential bout with world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in a quarter-final after a tricky start, with dangerous floaters scattered throughout his section. Tennis legend Pat Rafter didn’t mince words when assessing the situation, stating on SEN Radio that it was a “shocking draw” and noting you could deal with one or two tough opponents, but not four in succession.
The projected path was daunting: potential shootouts against grand slam nemesis Alexander Bublik in the last 16, before the top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. American 29th seed Frances Tiafoe loomed as a likely third-round opponent, making every match a potential minefield.
The Unexpected Break
Just when the challenge seemed insurmountable, fortune intervened. Berrettini, the former world No.6, pulled out on Saturday due to illness, dramatically altering de Minaur’s opening match landscape. The Italian had played just one fixture at an exhibition event before retiring from subsequent matches, clearly not at full fitness.
In a social media statement, Berrettini expressed his disappointment, saying he was really sorry to withdraw and had always enjoyed playing at Melbourne Park with the incredible support of Australian fans. He thanked the tournament organizers and expressed hope to return soon.
De Minaur will open his campaign on Rod Laver Arena on Monday against a significantly less threatening opponent. Berrettini has been replaced by qualifying lucky loser Mackenzie McDonald from the United States.
A Massive Boost
The withdrawal represents a significant advantage for the Australian. De Minaur had trailed Berrettini 3-2 in their head-to-head encounters, and while he had won both meetings on hard courts, the Italian’s powerful game always posed a serious threat. Berrettini has been a regular grand slam performer, reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open and the finals at Wimbledon during his career.
In stark contrast, de Minaur holds a perfect 2-0 record against McDonald, most recently claiming victory over the American in Rotterdam back in 2022. The matchup represents a far more manageable opening round, allowing the Australian to potentially find his rhythm early in the tournament rather than facing an immediate baptism of fire.
The Broader Context
De Minaur enters the Australian Open after a stellar 2025 campaign, finally breaking into the elite with his career-high seeding. The 26-year-old qualified for his first Australian Open quarterfinal last year after three consecutive fourth-round defeats, and is determined to go deeper in 2026.
His Australian Open record stands at 18-8, making it his second-best grand slam tournament. However, he has yet to reach the semifinals at any major, a milestone that remains the next frontier in his career progression.
The tournament represents a critical opportunity. Playing at home with a partisan crowd behind him, de Minaur has the conditions to potentially make his breakthrough. But even with the Berrettini reprieve, the path remains treacherous.
What Still Lies Ahead
While the first-round obstacle has been diminished, de Minaur’s draw remains one of the toughest in Melbourne. Argentina’s world No.74 Mariano Navone or Serbia’s 96th-ranked Hamad Medjedovic wait in the second round, followed by the likely clash with Frances Tiafoe in round three.
The American has been in strong form and would represent a stern test. Beyond that, Alexander Bublik lurks in the round of 16. Bublik, who recently made his top 10 debut after winning Hong Kong and capturing four titles in 2025 across all surfaces, has evolved from showman to genuine threat. He’s proven to be something of a nemesis for de Minaur in grand slams.
And if the Australian can navigate that minefield, Carlos Alcaraz awaits in the quarterfinals. The Spanish superstar is bidding to become the youngest man ever to complete a career grand slam, needing only the Australian Open to add to his collection from the French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open. Alcaraz holds a perfect 5-0 record against de Minaur in previous encounters, including a commanding 6-3, 6-3 victory in an exhibition match just days before the tournament began.
A Defiant Response
Despite the challenging circumstances, de Minaur has maintained his characteristic fighting spirit. When asked about his nightmare draw after losing to Alcaraz in the exhibition match, the Australian delivered a defiant message to former tennis star Wally Masur and the assembled media.
“Hey, if it was meant to be easy, everyone would do it,” de Minaur said. “So I’m excited for the challenge. Yeah super happy, very excited to get started and we’re just around the corner. So hopefully I can put on a show for you guys.”
Before the tournament, he acknowledged the difficulty ahead while embracing the battle: “Ultimately, every single player in the draw is extremely tough. I knew going in that there were going to be many unseeded players which were going to be really tough match-ups. It’s going to be a battle, but I’m looking forward to it.”
The Injury Cloud
While de Minaur received good news with Berrettini’s withdrawal, the tennis world responded with sadness for the Italian. Berrettini has battled numerous injuries over recent years, forcing him to withdraw from seven grand slams in four years and being hampered in 10 tournaments since 2021.
The former Wimbledon finalist was knocked out in the second round at Melbourne Park in 2025 before being forced to retire from the Italian Open with an oblique injury. The same issue kept him out of both the French and US Opens. While he was able to feature in Italy’s Davis Cup victory in November, the latest illness represents yet another cruel blow to a player whose career has been repeatedly interrupted by physical setbacks.
The Road to History
For de Minaur, the reprieve opens a window, however narrow, to make Australian tennis history. No Australian man has won the Australian Open since Mark Edmondson in 1976, and de Minaur carries those hopes on his shoulders as he takes to Rod Laver Arena.
The path remains brutal, but it’s now marginally more navigable. With McDonald replacing Berrettini, de Minaur at least avoids the worst-case scenario of facing elite competition from the opening bell. Whether he can capitalize on this stroke of fortune and navigate the treacherous draw ahead will define his 2026 campaign.
The tournament begins on Sunday, January 18, with de Minaur’s opening match scheduled for Monday. Australian fans will be watching with hope that their leading man can finally break through on home soil, turning a horror draw into a historic triumph.
