Alex de Minaur is still searching for his first win over Carlos Alcaraz, having lost all five of their previous encounters. However, three Australian tennis greats believe the home favourite has a genuine chance to cause an upset when the pair meet in Tuesday night’s blockbuster Australian Open quarter-final — provided he delivers in several crucial areas.
Alcaraz arrives in Melbourne chasing history, aiming to become the youngest man ever to complete the career Grand Slam, with the Australian Open the only major missing from his collection. The world No.1 has yet to drop a set at this year’s tournament and represents by far the toughest challenge de Minaur has faced so far.
Despite that, former Grand Slam champions Pat Rafter, Lleyton Hewitt and Pat Cash all insist the Australian can trouble the six-time major winner in front of a raucous Rod Laver Arena crowd. The trio believe de Minaur must serve at a high percentage and adopt an aggressive mindset to counter Alcaraz’s explosive groundstrokes and trademark variety.
With the roof at Rod Laver Arena set to remain closed following Melbourne’s intense heatwave, conditions could play into de Minaur’s hands. Former Wimbledon champion Cash feels those circumstances may blunt some of Alcaraz’s weapons — particularly the heavy bounce on his forehand — if the Australian can prevent the Spaniard from dictating rallies.
“It will be warm in there and the roof will be shut,” Cash said. “I think that probably helps Alex because he doesn’t want the ball jumping around. In daytime conditions, Carlos can really kick the ball up and slice it down, which is tough to deal with. I think the conditions are lining up for Alex to have a real go — if he serves really well.”
De Minaur urged to take the initiative
Serving has been an area of concern for de Minaur against the very top players, and Rafter agrees it will be pivotal. The two-time Grand Slam champion believes the 26-year-old must look to attack, move forward, and be prepared with multiple tactical options if he is to reach his first Grand Slam semi-final.
“He knows he’s got to serve big,” Rafter said. “If he keeps giving second serves, it becomes very difficult. He needs to go in with a pretty aggressive game plan, but at the same time he needs a plan B and a plan C. Are there opportunities to mix it up and change things?”
Australia’s Davis Cup captain Hewitt pointed to de Minaur’s strong run to the quarter-finals in Melbourne last year and a career-best 2025 season that has lifted him to world No.6. Hewitt believes confidence and belief will be key if the Australian is to spring a surprise.
“It’s going to be a big, big match for him, but I think he looks forward to it,” Hewitt said. “The belief is the key — knowing he’s worked extremely hard and given himself every opportunity. He’s still got to go out there and execute. It won’t be easy, but he’s certainly giving himself a shot.”
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