Alex de Minaur vs. Jannik Sinner: Vienna Open Semi-Final Preview
Alex de Minaur has declared himself “ready” for his arch-nemesis Jannik Sinner in their Vienna Open semi-final on Saturday, October 25, at 3 p.m. CEST (10 a.m. ET / 7 a.m. PT), vowing to end his 0-11 head-to-head drought against the world No. 2. The Australian, seeded No. 3, advanced with a commanding 6-1, 7-6(7-4) quarter-final win over Matteo Berrettini, marking his 52nd victory of 2025 (52-19 record) and 302nd career win. “I’m ready for Jannik—he’s the one I need to beat for the next step,” de Minaur told Tennis TV post-match, emphasizing his mental preparation. “I’ve got nothing to lose; it’s about fighting for every point.” Sinner, the top seed and 2023 Vienna champion, cruised past Alexander Bublik 6-4, 6-4 in the quarters, extending his indoor hard win streak to 19 matches and remaining unbeaten in 2025 sets at the event (3-0 this week).
#### Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Sinner leads 11-0 lifetime, including 6-0 on indoor hard courts, with their last clash a 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 semi-final win for the Italian at the China Open in September 2025. De Minaur has shown fight in recent meetings, taking a set in Beijing and saving match points in Indian Wells, but Sinner’s serve (80% first-serve points won in Vienna) and baseline depth have proven insurmountable.
| Player | 2025 Record (Hard) | Vienna 2025 Stats | H2H vs. Opponent |
|——–|——————–|——————-|——————|
| **Alex de Minaur** | 37-5 (88% win rate) | 6-1, 7-6 vs. Berrettini; 6 aces, 3 breaks | 0-11 (0-6 indoor hard) |
| Jannik Sinner | 34-3 (92% win rate) | 6-4, 6-4 vs. Bublik; 10 aces, 0 breaks conceded | 11-0 |
de Minaur’s Readiness: “I’ve Got Nothing to Lose”
De Minaur, rebounding from a hip injury that forced his Hong Kong withdrawal in October, has been flawless in Vienna, dropping just 12 games in two wins (vs. Rodionov 6-4, 6-1; Berrettini 6-1, 7-6). “Jannik’s the benchmark—I’m ready to fight; nothing to lose,” he said, highlighting his serve variety (125 mph first serves) and 82% hold rate. A win catapults him to the final against either Alexander Zverev or Lorenzo Musetti, his first Vienna title, and boosts his Race to Turin standing (No. 7, 495 points from top 5).
Sinner, 24 and 2023 Vienna champion, has been untouchable indoors, with 19 straight wins and no sets dropped in Vienna (vs. Altmaier 6-0, 6-2; Bublik 6-4, 6-4). “Alex fights hard—he’s tough, but I’m focused,” Sinner said, his 86% first-serve win rate a weapon.
Prediction and Stakes
Sinner’s dominance makes him the favorite (83% win probability per Dimers simulations), but de Minaur’s fight could force three sets. **Prediction: Sinner 6-4, 7-6**. A de Minaur win earns 330 points and a top-5 year-end ranking push; Sinner’s advances his No. 1 bid.
The semi-final, not before 3 p.m. CEST (10 a.m. ET), is must-watch—de Minaur’s “ready” roar vs. Sinner’s serene storm. The Demon’s hunt continues.
