Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Bublik Head to Head Record, Preview, and Prediction for the French Open 2025 Second Round

Head-to-Head Record

Alex de Minaur leads Alexander Bublik 3-0 in their ATP head-to-head record, with no sets dropped across their encounters, per www.atptour.com. Their matches include:

• 2021 Antalya Open (Hard): De Minaur won 2-0 (Bublik retired after seven minutes due to injury).
• 2021 Barcelona Open (Clay): De Minaur won 7-6(3), 6-2.
• 2024 Indian Wells Masters (Hard): De Minaur won 7-5, 6-0, with 67% first-serve points won and 54% return points.
  Their only clay meeting in Barcelona 2021 highlights de Minaur’s edge on the surface, where his speed and consistency neutralized Bublik’s serve.

Match Preview

The second-round clash at the French Open 2025, scheduled for May 29, 2025, at 12:00 PM on Court Suzanne-Lenglen, pits world No. 9 de Minaur against No. 62 Bublik. Both players advanced with straight-set first-round wins. De Minaur defeated Laslo Djere 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(8/6), saving four set points in a tiebreak despite a 43% first-serve percentage and five double faults. Bublik dispatched James Duckworth 6-2, 6-4, 6-4, firing 16 aces and winning 84% of first-serve points without facing a break point.

De Minaur’s Form and Strengths

De Minaur, with a 27-10 record in 2025 and 10-4 on clay, has solidified his top-10 status. His 2024 French Open quarterfinal run, the first by an Australian man since Lleyton Hewitt in 2004, and a Monte Carlo Masters semifinal showcase his clay-court growth. His stats include 74% first-serve points won, 56% break points saved, and 49% break points converted on clay. De Minaur’s relentless baseline rallying, world-class endurance, and elite return game (No. 1 ATP ranking for returns) make him a formidable counterpuncher. However, his 43% first-serve rate against Djere raises concerns against Bublik’s big serve.

Bublik’s Form and Strengths

Bublik, with a 19-15 record in 2025 and 12-5 on clay, has shown improvement, winning his first clay title at the Turin Challenger and reaching the Phoenix Challenger final. His first-round performance featured 62.4% first-serve percentage, 73.4% first-serve points won, and 9.7 aces per match on clay. However, his 5.1 double faults per match and 40% break-point conversion rate highlight inconsistencies. Bublik’s explosive serve and trick shots can disrupt opponents, but his 0-3 record against de Minaur and 10-24 against top-10 players underscore his underdog status. His 0-4 second-round record at Roland Garros adds further pressure.

Key Match Factors

• Surface Dynamics: Clay favors de Minaur’s defensive baseline game, as seen in their 2021 Barcelona clash, where he absorbed Bublik’s power. Bublik’s serve is less dominant on clay, and his double faults could be costly.
• Head-to-Head Edge: De Minaur’s perfect record and set dominance suggest a psychological advantage.
• Current Form: De Minaur’s consistency (7-3 in last 10 matches) trumps Bublik’s erratic 7-3, with the Kazakh’s clay success largely at Challenger level.
• Tactical Battle: De Minaur’s return game should exploit Bublik’s second serve (83.4% points won), while Bublik needs to land first serves to stay competitive. Posts on X note Bublik’s improved clay swing but flag de Minaur’s low first-serve percentage as a potential vulnerability.

Prediction

De Minaur is the clear favorite, with predictive models giving him a 73-82% win probability. His head-to-head dominance, superior clay record, and defensive prowess should neutralize Bublik’s serve-heavy game. While Bublik’s 16 aces against Duckworth and 100% tiebreak win rate on clay suggest he could steal a set, as speculated on X, his historical struggles against de Minaur and top-10 players tilt the odds heavily. De Minaur’s ability to extend rallies and capitalize on Bublik’s 5.1 double faults per match should secure a straight-sets victory.

Pick: Alex de Minaur to win in straight sets (3-0) at odds of 1.89 (1xbet), with a side bet on under 3.5 sets at 1.71 (Betway).