Alex de Minaur’s Risky Schedule Change Backfires with Early Dubai Exit
Alex de Minaur’s decision to skip the defense of his Acapulco title in pursuit of a bigger payday in Qatar and Dubai has backfired dramatically, as he suffered a shocking first-round loss to Marin Cilic on Tuesday night. The Aussie fell 2-6, 6-3, 3-6 in his Dubai opener against the former World No. 3, who is currently ranked 187.
De Minaur got off to a rough start, dropping the first three games en route to losing the opening set. He fought back to level the match in the second set, but ultimately fell to a disappointing defeat.
The loss marks the first time since June last year that de Minaur has failed to reach at least the quarterfinals of a tournament. Over the past eight months, he has consistently performed at a high level, making deep runs at Wimbledon, the US Open, Antwerp, Vienna, the Paris Masters, the Australian Open, Rotterdam, and Doha.
Just last week, he reached the quarterfinals in Doha before losing to eventual champion Andrey Rublev. However, his defeat to Cilic raises questions about his decision to alter his 2025 schedule, despite finding success with his previous plans over the past two years.
Why De Minaur Skipped Acapulco
De Minaur had won back-to-back titles at the Mexican Open in Acapulco in 2023 and 2024. But instead of returning to defend his crown, he opted to compete in Dubai, which runs at the same time. His decision was reportedly influenced by the lure of higher prize money and ranking points available in the back-to-back Qatar and Dubai events. The tournaments offer a combined AU$10 million to their champions—approximately $4.7 million in Qatar and $5.4 million in Dubai.
However, the gamble has not paid off. His early exit in Dubai puts him at risk of slipping further in the ATP rankings. De Minaur, who had recently climbed to a career-high ranking of World No. 6, has already fallen to No. 9 following his loss to Cilic. If Tommy Paul wins another match in Acapulco, he could push the Aussie down to No. 10.
Personal Factor: Katie Boulter’s Absence
Another factor in de Minaur’s decision to play in Qatar and Dubai was the presence of his fiancée, Katie Boulter, who had been scheduled to compete in the WTA events held in the same region. The couple saw it as an opportunity to spend rare time together during their busy seasons.
However, Boulter later withdrew from both tournaments due to a foot injury and is now targeting a return at Indian Wells next month. This unforeseen development left de Minaur competing in the Middle East without the added benefit of Boulter’s company.
A Costly Decision?
The decision to switch up his schedule has drawn mixed reactions, particularly given de Minaur’s past success in Acapulco. The Aussie himself previously credited his performances in Mexico for propelling him into the ATP’s top 10.
“Obviously, if you want to rise up the rankings, it’s pretty tough to do that if you’re not winning these types of matches [against top-10 players],” he said last year. “But a couple of big wins in Acapulco really gave me a lot of confidence, and I was able to build on that.”
While de Minaur’s gamble has not paid off in Dubai, it wasn’t all bad news for Australian tennis fans. Fellow Aussie Chris O’Connell advanced after World No. 16 Grigor Dimitrov retired hurt, having lost the first set 6-0 in just 24 minutes. Meanwhile, Andrey Rublev suffered a surprise 3-6, 6-4, 6-7 (5-7) loss to French qualifier Quentin Halys, while top seed Daniil Medvedev defeated Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4, 7-6 (7-4).
