Despite Alexander Zverev’s loss to Matteo Berrettini in the second round of the Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Jannik Sinner is mathematically guaranteed to hold onto the No. 1 spot in the ATP rankings at least until the Rome Masters 1000 in May.
Sinner, who only played the Australian Open in 2025 before agreeing to a three-month suspension with WADA, benefited from the underwhelming results of both Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz, allowing him to maintain his position atop the ATP standings.
Zverev has been in a slump since his heavy defeat to Sinner at the Australian Open, with his confidence shattered. The German has struggled to find his form, suffering a string of disappointing losses between February and March. At the Monte Carlo Masters, he won the first set against Berrettini but faltered, allowing the Italian to mount a stunning comeback with the support of his home crowd.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, didn’t capitalize on the opportunity to surpass Sinner during his absence. The 21-year-old Spaniard only won one title in Rotterdam in February and didn’t make a significant impact at either the Indian Wells or Miami Masters. He admitted that the pressure of potentially regaining the No. 1 ranking weighed heavily on him.
Alcaraz’s Path to No. 1: A Tall Order
For Zverev, a return to the top of the ATP rankings is unlikely until after Roland Garros, where he was a finalist last year. Alcaraz, on the other hand, faces an uphill battle to dethrone Sinner before the French Open.
To have any chance of reclaiming the No. 1 spot, Alcaraz would need to win four consecutive tournaments: Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome. He would also need Sinner to suffer an early exit in Rome, which is not out of the realm of possibility.
Unless there are major upsets, it’s increasingly likely that Sinner will finish a full calendar year at No. 1. This would be a well-earned achievement for the 23-year-old Italian, who has consistently delivered strong performances from January 2024 to now.
