Jessica Pegula’s Path to World No. 2: The Biggest Challenger to Aryna Sabalenka After Roland Garros?

Jessica Pegula may have fallen short against Aryna Sabalenka in the Miami Open final, but the American star is in prime position to climb to World No. 2 after Roland Garros. With limited points to defend compared to her top-ranked rivals, Pegula could soon emerge as Sabalenka’s biggest threat.

Why Pegula Has the Advantage

Unlike many top-ranked players, Pegula missed a significant portion of last season due to injury, meaning she has fewer ranking points to defend. She skipped Roland Garros last year and only has a Berlin Open title as a major ranking obligation before the US Open.

While she will eventually drop 3,000 points from her performances in Canada, Cincinnati, and the US Open, her low clay-court point total (only 195 points to defend) gives her a strong chance to climb the rankings in the coming months.

Key Players and Ranking Implications

• Coco Gauff remains secure at World No. 3 and is unlikely to lose ground.
• Zheng Qinwen could climb four spots, with only Palermo being a key tournament to defend.
• Mirra Andreeva, Madison Keys, and Jasmine Paolini all risk dropping in the rankings due to high points from Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
• Karolina Muchova, who was injured last season, has zero points to defend and could make a major comeback into the Top 10.

Swiatek’s Tough Road Ahead

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek faces a high-pressure clay season, with 4,195 points to defend from her 2024 dominance at Rome, Madrid, and Roland Garros. While she won’t be defending Stuttgart, her inconsistent form this year means she must deliver another dominant clay-court run to stay ahead.

Other Key Ranking Shifts

• Elena Rybakina is set to fall due to skipping Stuttgart in favor of the Billie Jean King Cup.
• Emma Navarro, Daria Kasatkina, and Diana Shnaider are competing in Charleston, which could impact their standings.
• Danielle Collins is set to drop 11 spots if she fails to defend her Charleston points.

The Big Picture: Can Pegula Capitalize?

With so many top players needing to defend crucial points, Pegula’s limited obligations make her a serious contender for World No. 2. If Swiatek struggles and Pegula capitalizes on her opportunities, the rankings could see a major shake-up heading into the second half of the season.

A pivotal few weeks lie ahead—will Pegula seize the moment?