With the clay season in full swing, eyes are already turning toward the French Open — and an intriguing rankings battle is developing between Taylor Fritz and Novak Djokovic for a coveted top-four seeding.
The main draw at Roland Garros kicks off in late May, but the ATP rankings leading up to the tournament will heavily influence the draw. While Jannik Sinner looks set to lock in the No. 1 seed, the remaining top-four spots are still in flux, especially between world No. 4 Taylor Fritz and No. 5 Novak Djokovic.
Why the Top-Four Seed Matters
For both players, securing a top-four seed is crucial. It guarantees they won’t face any of the top three seeds — Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, or Alexander Zverev — until at least the semi-final stage. Falling outside that threshold increases the risk of meeting a top contender as early as the quarter-finals.
Current Standings
Following the latest ATP rankings update, Fritz holds the No. 4 spot with 5,280 points. Djokovic, who dropped 390 points after a second-round exit in Monte Carlo (where he had reached the semi-finals last year), trails with 4,120 points.
Fritz, meanwhile, withdrew from Monte Carlo due to an abdominal injury and lost only 10 points, having also exited early in 2024.
Djokovic’s Advantage
Despite the current gap, Djokovic has a distinct advantage: he’s defending very few points during the remainder of the clay season. The 24-time Grand Slam champion missed Madrid last year and only earned 50 points in Rome after a third-round loss.
This gives Djokovic significant room to gain ground in both ATP 1000 events this spring, assuming he competes and performs well.
Fritz Under Pressure
Fritz, on the other hand, has plenty of points to defend. His 2024 clay swing was strong, with a runner-up finish in Munich, a semi-final in Madrid, and a quarter-final in Rome. However, he’s already withdrawn from Munich this year, meaning he’ll lose 165 points next week.
By the next rankings update, Fritz’s tally will drop to 5,115. If he fails to replicate last year’s results in Madrid (400 points) and Rome (200 points), his total could fall as low as 4,515.
In contrast, Djokovic would only dip slightly to 4,070 points after his minimal point deduction from Rome. This narrows the gap to just 445 points — within striking distance if Djokovic can make a deep run in either Madrid or Rome.
What’s at Stake
While Fritz still has a cushion, his ongoing injury issues leave him vulnerable. For Djokovic, this presents a golden opportunity to reclaim a top-four spot — a move that could be decisive in his bid for a record-extending 25th Grand Slam singles title.
A strong showing in just one of the upcoming ATP Masters 1000 events could be enough to shift the momentum in the Serbian’s favor ahead of Paris.
