State of the Season: How will Aryna Sabalenka fare in the final months of 2024?

What’s at Stake

Once upon a time, when the Billie Jean King Cup was called Fed Cup, a teenager from Belarus helped lead her team to the 2017 finals. Aryna Sabalenka’s game seemingly screamed off the lines, a passionate, full-bodied showcase of high-octane baseline power and vocal expression.

But the big challenge in her early years was sustainability; more bluntly, she was erratic. Even as Sabalenka methodically made her way up the ranks, it was uncertain if her technique would indeed hold up under pressure on big occasions. A horrible erosion of her serve did not help matters.

Sabalenka has put in significant time to improve everything from her serve to competitive mindset. It’s paid off richly in the last two years, highlighted by victories at three majors—most recently at the US Open, where she stormed to the title with the loss of just one set.

I mean, I’m not trying to focus on ranking, to be honest…Not like I’m checking where I’m gonna be after the tournament. I’m just trying to focus on myself, and I know that if on each tournament I’ll be able to play my best tennis and I’ll be able to bring this fight spirit on each game, I’ll be able to become World No. 1 again. Aryna Sabalenka

Right now, it’s the best time of Sabalenka’s career. Having swiftly built a Hall of Fame resume, the two-time Australian Open champion might feel more relaxed than ever, comfortable to continue swinging freely and take in what it means to have at last earned big titles.

“I mean, I know that I have to go for it,” Sabalenka said following the US Open final. “That’s the only way it works for me, because every time I’m trying to play safer and play, like, be aware of these key moments. Every time I stop my arms and the ball flies in the stands, so long time ago I decided for myself in that those important moments I just have to go for it, I have to swing.”

Motivation

There’s plenty to motivate Sabalenka this fall, most of all an eagerness to build off her two Slam title runs in 2024, perhaps regain the No. 1 ranking (she held it last fall for eight weeks) and earn at least one more win over Iga Swiatek, a victory that would level their season head-to-head at two wins apiece.

“I mean, I’m not trying to focus on ranking, to be honest,” Sabalenka said in New York. “Not like I’m checking where I’m gonna be after the tournament. I’m just trying to focus on myself, and I know that if on each tournament I’ll be able to play my best tennis and I’ll be able to bring this fight spirit on each game, I’ll be able to become World No. 1 again.

“So. my focus is on myself, on improving myself as a player and as a person. Yeah, hopefully one day I’ll see myself on the top of the ranking.”

Tournaments to Watch

Sabalenka’s next two tournaments will be in Asia. She begins in Beijing at the China Open (September 23-October 6). Last year, Sabalenka reached the quarterfinals, losing to Elena Rybakina. Immediately after that, she heads to Wuhan, a tournament off the calendar for five years but one where she boasts a perfect 12-0 record—having won back-to-back titles in 2018-19.

As the top seed in Beijing, she will open against one of two qualifiers: Zarina Diyas or Mananchaya Sawangkaew.