Why Novak Djokovic Isn’t the Favorite for the 2025 French Open Despite His 100th Title

Novak Djokovic, the 24-time Grand Slam champion, entered the 2025 French Open with a boost from winning his 100th ATP title at the Geneva Open on May 24, 2025, defeating Hubert Hurkacz 5-7, 7-6(7-2), 7-6(7-2) (The Washington Post, May 24, 2025). This milestone, making him the first player to win an ATP title in 20 consecutive seasons (Wikipedia), showcased flashes of his brilliance. However, despite this confidence boost, Djokovic is not the favorite for the 2025 French Open, which began May 25, 2025, at Roland Garros, due to a combination of inconsistent form, physical limitations, and formidable competition. Below are the key reasons, grounded in his 2025 season performance and the current tennis landscape.

1. Inconsistent Form and Subpar 2025 Season

Djokovic’s 2025 season has been his weakest in over a decade, with a 13-7 record before Geneva and no titles until his 100th (Sportskeeda, May 24, 2025). His clay-court campaign was particularly dismal, with first-round losses to Alejandro Tabilo in Monte Carlo and Matteo Arnaldi in Madrid (both 6-4, 6-3), marking a 0-2 clay record before Geneva (The Athletic, April 26, 2025). These defeats, alongside four first-round exits in 2025—unprecedented for him—highlight a stark decline from his 2023 dominance, when he won three majors (Nine.com.au, May 10, 2025). Even in Geneva, while he showed resilience, his performance wasn’t vintage, needing tiebreaks to edge past Hurkacz, suggesting he’s “not there yet” in recapturing his peak (Sportskeeda).

Djokovic himself acknowledged this “new reality” after Madrid, stating, “Trying to win a match or two, not really thinking about getting far in the tournament,” a stark contrast to his usual Grand Slam ambitions (The Athletic, April 26, 2025). His Miami Open final loss to Jakub Menšík, a non-top-10 player, further underscored vulnerabilities, as younger players like Menšík lack the “PTSD” of facing peak Djokovic (Nine.com.au). Fans on X, like @DreamTennisBet, expressed skepticism about his French Open chances, citing his Geneva participation as a sign of desperation rather than strength (X, May 19, 2025).

2. Physical Limitations and Injury Concerns

At 38, Djokovic’s body is showing signs of wear, a critical factor on the physically demanding clay courts of Roland Garros, where best-of-five-set matches test endurance (Tennisnerd.net, May 16, 2025). A hamstring injury forced his retirement in the Australian Open semifinals against Alexander Zverev in January 2025, and subsequent losses in Doha (to Matteo Berrettini) and Indian Wells (to Botic van de Zandschulp) raised concerns about his recovery (The Washington Post). His 2024 French Open withdrawal due to a torn medial meniscus, followed by a rapid return to reach the Wimbledon final, demonstrated resilience but also highlighted ongoing physical fragility (Britannica, May 22, 2025).

In Geneva, Djokovic appeared “sharper than usual” but still a step slower, with less power in his serve and groundstrokes, per Tennisnerd.net. Analyst Wally Masur noted “red flags” in his movement, suggesting that at 38, Djokovic struggles to maintain the explosive athleticism that defined his dominance (Nine.com.au). The grueling clay season, requiring seven best-of-five matches, poses a “daunting prospect” for a player battling “niggles,” as Djokovic admitted (The Washington Post). This physical decline diminishes his ability to outlast younger, fitter opponents over two weeks.

3. Stronger Competition, Led by Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner

The primary reason Djokovic isn’t favored is the emergence of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, who are seen as superior on clay in 2025. Alcaraz, the 2024 French Open champion and No. 2 seed, is the betting favorite at +105, with Sinner at +210, while Djokovic lags at +1200 (CBSSports.com, May 24, 2025). Alcaraz’s natural clay prowess, evidenced by titles in Barcelona and Madrid in 2025, and Sinner’s Rome final post-doping ban, position them as the top contenders (The Washington Post). Sportskeeda argues that Djokovic “can’t beat Alcaraz on a clay court in a best-of-five match,” a view reinforced by Alcaraz’s straight-sets rout of Djokovic in the 2024 Wimbledon final (Sportskeeda, May 24, 2025).

Djokovic’s draw is unforgiving, potentially pitting him against Zverev in the quarterfinals, Sinner in the semifinals, and Alcaraz in the final—a “painfully narrow” path to a 25th Slam (The Athletic, May 23, 2025). His 2024 Olympic gold win over Alcaraz at Roland Garros (two tiebreak sets) was a high point, but Sportskeeda notes that his form since hasn’t matched that level. Sinner, despite a hip injury, has a 28-2 record in 2025, and Zverev’s Italian Open title adds depth to the field (Sportskeeda, May 20, 2024). X user @ApplePasta echoed this, stating, “3 out of 5 sets on clay through two weeks, too much to ask at age 38,” favoring Alcaraz (X, May 22, 2025).

4. Lack of Coaching Stability

Djokovic’s split with coach Andy Murray in May 2025, after a six-month stint yielding no titles, adds uncertainty (Outlookindia.com, May 21, 2025). Murray’s departure, following a promising Australian Open win over Alcaraz, left Djokovic without a head coach for the French Open, relying on familiar faces like Dušan Vemic and Boris Bosnjaković (Footboom1.com, May 20, 2025). While Djokovic expressed confidence in his team, saying, “I’m not in need of a coach,” the lack of a strategic overhaul could hinder his ability to counter Alcaraz and Sinner’s evolving games (Footboom1.com). His 2024 coaching instability, including brief splits with Goran Ivanišević, contrasts with the continuity that underpinned his 2023 French Open win.

5. Historical Context and Lower Expectations

Despite his three French Open titles (2016, 2021, 2023), Roland Garros is Djokovic’s least successful major, with a 3-14 win ratio compared to 10-13 at the Australian Open (Tennis365.com, April 1, 2025). His 2024 French Open withdrawal and third-round U.S. Open loss—his worst in 19 years—signal a decline that even the Geneva title hasn’t fully reversed (Britannica). Betting odds reflect this, with CBSSports.com’s Jose Onorato fading Djokovic due to “too many question marks” about his form and physicality (CBSSports.com). Djokovic’s own tempered outlook, echoed from 2024’s “low expectations, high hopes,” suggests he’s not banking on a deep run (AP News, May 26, 2024).

Counterpoint: Why Djokovic Still Has a Chance

Djokovic’s Geneva performance, avenging his Madrid loss to Arnaldi and outlasting Hurkacz, indicates he’s nearing his best, per Sportskeeda. His favorable early draw—facing Mackenzie McDonald, then potentially Corentin Moutet or Denis Shapovalov—offers a chance to build momentum (SI.com, May 22, 2025). His 2024 Olympic triumph on Roland Garros clay and history of peaking in adversity, like his 2021 French Open win over Nadal and Tsitsipas, keep him dangerous (The Athletic, May 22, 2025). Jim Courier warned against underestimating him, noting “glimpses of brilliance” (Motorcyclesports.net, May 21, 2025). X user @MickColageo suggested a deep run could be his “crowning achievement” (X, May 22, 2025).

Conclusion

Despite the confidence from his 100th title, Djokovic’s inconsistent 2025 form (13-7 pre-Geneva, 0-2 on clay), physical decline at 38, and the dominance of Alcaraz (+105) and Sinner (+210) make him a longshot at +1200 (CBSSports.com). His tough draw, coaching instability, and historical struggles at Roland Garros further diminish his favoritism. While his experience and resilience give him a “puncher’s chance,” the consensus, echoed by Sportskeeda and betting markets, favors younger, clay-adept rivals. If Djokovic defies the odds, it would cement his legacy as the greatest, but the evidence points to Alcaraz or Sinner lifting the trophy on June 8, 2025.