Alex de Minaur may want to savor his first-round bye at the 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters—because the road ahead looks anything but smooth.
The Australian, seeded No. 8, has drawn one of the toughest potential paths in the ATP 1000 event, which marks the official start of the clay-court season. Based on the average ranking of his projected opponents, De Minaur’s draw is arguably the most difficult among the top seeds.
In his opening match, De Minaur is likely to face world No. 21 Tomas Machac—a player who narrowly missed out on being seeded himself. If he advances, De Minaur could potentially face opponents ranked inside the world’s top 11 in each of the next four rounds. Simply put, there are no easy matches ahead.
Not Alone in the Gauntlet
Sebastian Baez may have drawn an even tougher lot. The Argentine, ranked No. 36, opens against Machac and would follow the same brutal path as De Minaur if he advances. Baez could find himself facing as many as five top-11 players en route to the final—six opponents inside the top 21 in total.
Some Seeds Catch a Break
By contrast, No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev has arguably the softest route on paper. After a first-round bye, he’ll meet either 38-year-old Gael Monfils or a qualifier. In the round of 16, Rublev is projected to face No. 12 seed Arthur Fils—a rising star but still only 20.
Grigor Dimitrov also appears to have a favorable draw. The No. 15 seed begins his campaign against No. 58 Nicolas Jarry and could face either Jan-Lennard Struff (No. 49) or local wildcard Valentin Vacherot in the next round.
Opportunity for Unseeded Arnaldi
Among unseeded players, Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi arguably drew the best hand. He opens against veteran Richard Gasquet—who’s only played three tour-level matches this year—and could face No. 16 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime or a qualifier in round two.
Defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas returns to Monte Carlo as the man to beat, but with a draw this stacked, the path to the final is perilous for everyone—especially Alex de Minaur.
