Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez: Head-to-Head in Tokyo Showdown
In the first round of the 2025 Japan Open (ATP 500) on September 25, world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz faces No. 41 Sebastian Baez on the indoor hard courts at Ariake Coliseum. This marks their third meeting, with Alcaraz entering as the heavy favorite after a stellar hard-court swing (28-4 record in 2025) and Baez struggling on the surface (2-7 this year). The match, scheduled for around 8:15 AM UTC, pits Alcaraz’s explosive all-court game against Baez’s gritty baseline style—but history favors the Spaniard decisively.
Head-to-Head Record
**Carlos Alcaraz leads 2-0.** Baez has yet to win a set across their encounters, underscoring Alcaraz’s dominance. Here’s a quick breakdown:
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|————|—————————–|——-|———|————|————————|
| Nov 2021 | Next Gen ATP Finals (Milan) | SF | Indoor Hard | Alcaraz | 4-2, 4-1, 4-2 (short sets) |
| Aug 2022 | US Open (New York) | R1 | Hard | Alcaraz | 7-5, 7-5, 2-0 ret. (Baez retired) |
– **Key Notes**: Their 2021 clash was in the Next Gen format (25-point tiebreak sets, no-ad scoring), where Alcaraz cruised. The 2022 US Open win came via straight sets before Baez retired injured, but Alcaraz was in control (winning the first two sets convincingly). No clay meetings yet, despite Baez’s clay expertise (he’s a two-time Rome champion in 2025). On hard courts, it’s 1-0 for Alcaraz in majors.
Match Context and Outlook
Alcaraz, fresh off skipping the China Open for rest, eyes his first Tokyo title (he won Beijing in 2024) and a potential quarterfinal vs. Taylor Fritz. Baez, a surprise Rotterdam and Rio winner this year, has faltered post-US Open (1R exit to Lloyd Harris) and owns a career 35-40 hard-court mark. Odds heavily tilt toward Alcaraz (-800 moneyline favorite), with predictions for a straight-sets rout given Baez’s 1-17 lifetime vs. top-10s.
This H2H edge, combined with Alcaraz’s form, positions him to extend the streak—potentially setting up a deep run before the Asian swing finale in Shanghai.
