Lindsay Davenport explains how Emma Raducanu could pull off shock Wimbledon upset vs World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka
Former Wimbledon champion Lindsay Davenport, alongside Jim Courier, outlined a strategic path for Emma Raducanu to potentially stun world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in their third-round clash on July 4, 2025, at Wimbledon, as detailed in *The Tennis Gazette* (). Raducanu, ranked No. 40, faces a formidable challenge against the three-time Grand Slam champion, but her recent 6-3, 6-3 demolition of 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova signals a return to form that could make an upset plausible. Here’s how Davenport believes Raducanu can defy the 3/1 odds (*Daily Mail*,):[](https://www.thetennisgazette.com/news/emma-raducanu-told-what-she-must-do-to-beat-aryna-sabalenka-at-wimbledon-by-jim-courier-and-lindsay-davenport/)[](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/skybet/article-14875069/Emma-Raducanu-Aryna-Sabalenka-Wimbledon-Sky-Bet.html)
– **High First-Serve Percentage**: Davenport emphasized that Raducanu must land a high percentage of first serves to counter Sabalenka’s aggressive return game. “Her second serve, Sabalenka is going to be all over,” Davenport warned, noting that Sabalenka’s power thrives on weaker serves (*The Tennis Gazette*,). Raducanu’s serve, refined with coach Mark Petchey, was a key weapon against Vondrousova, with a 65% first-serve win rate and four aces (*WTA Tennis*,). Maintaining this consistency is critical to avoid being overwhelmed by Sabalenka’s 7.8 average shot quality on returns (*BBC Sport*,).[](https://www.thetennisgazette.com/news/emma-raducanu-told-what-she-must-do-to-beat-aryna-sabalenka-at-wimbledon-by-jim-courier-and-lindsay-davenport/)[](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4300719/raducanu-rolls-past-vondrousova-sets-wimbledon-meeting-vs-no-1-sabalenka)[](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/c86g079z8l9o)
– **Handling Sabalenka’s Power**: Sabalenka’s “superior pace and weight of shot” (*The Guardian*,) poses a challenge, as Raducanu is 1-9 against top-five players, often appearing underpowered (*The Guardian*,). Davenport suggests Raducanu must absorb and redirect Sabalenka’s power through her athleticism and fluid movement on grass, which allows her to position for aggressive shots (*BBC Sport*,). Raducanu’s 51% steal score against Vondrousova, winning over half the points when defending, shows her capability to turn defense into offense (*Telegraph*,).[](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/jul/03/emma-raducanu-confronts-top-five-struggles-before-sabalenka-showdown)[](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/jul/03/emma-raducanu-confronts-top-five-struggles-before-sabalenka-showdown)[](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/c86g079z8l9o)
– **Creative Aggression**: Raducanu must avoid “nothing balls” and play proactive, first-strike tennis without over-hitting, as Sabalenka capitalizes on passive play (*Sky Sports*,). Davenport and Courier agree she needs “something a bit outside of the box,” leveraging her forehand (rated 8.2 for shot quality) and backhand to disrupt Sabalenka’s rhythm (*BBC Sport*,). Raducanu’s ability to mix pace and spin, as seen in her 24 winners against Vondrousova, could keep Sabalenka off balance (*WTA Tennis*,). Her 2021 Wimbledon win over Vondrousova (6-3, 6-2) relied on similar tactics (*The Independent*,).[](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/13391630/wimbledon-emma-raducanu-says-facing-aryna-sabalenka-next-isnt-unlucky-you-want-to-play-the-best)[](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/c86g079z8l9o)[](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4300719/raducanu-rolls-past-vondrousova-sets-wimbledon-meeting-vs-no-1-sabalenka)
– **Crowd Support and Mental Edge**: Sabalenka struggles with hostile crowds, as seen in her 2023 US Open final loss to Coco Gauff (*Tennis.com*,). Raducanu, buoyed by Centre Court’s partisan atmosphere and her childhood friends in the player’s box, thrives at home, saying, “There’s no better feeling than winning here” (*WTA Tennis*,). Davenport believes this emotional boost, combined with Raducanu’s “no pressure” mindset (*Sky Sports*,), could unsettle Sabalenka, who admitted discomfort facing British players at Wimbledon (*Tennis.com*,).[](https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/wimbledon-day-5-preview-emma-raducanu-aryna-sabalenka-third-round)[](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4300719/raducanu-rolls-past-vondrousova-sets-wimbledon-meeting-vs-no-1-sabalenka)[](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/13391630/wimbledon-emma-raducanu-says-facing-aryna-sabalenka-next-isnt-unlucky-you-want-to-play-the-best)
– **Tactical Execution**: Raducanu’s game plan, crafted with Petchey, focuses on early aggression and court positioning (*BBC Sport*,). Against Vondrousova, she broke serve four times by taking the ball early and redirecting spin (*The Guardian*,). Davenport suggests replicating this against Sabalenka, targeting her 30% second-serve return win rate (*WTA Tennis*) and avoiding long rallies where Sabalenka’s power dominates (averaging 10 winners per set in 2025, per *ATP/WTA stats*).[](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/cvg44y8q7q2o)[](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/jul/02/emma-raducanu-storms-past-2023-wimbledon-champion-marketa-vondrousova-in-style)
**Challenges and Context**: Sabalenka, who won 7-6(4), 6-4 against Marie Bouzkova, is a heavy favorite at 1/4 odds, having beaten Raducanu 6-3, 7-5 at Indian Wells 2024 (*Sky Sports*,). However, that match was competitive, with Raducanu forcing all-court scrambles (*Tennis.com*,). The women’s draw, decimated by upsets (only Sabalenka remains of the top five seeds, *Sky Sports*,), offers Raducanu a window, but her 1-9 record against top-five players and recent heavy losses to Gauff and Swiatek highlight the gap (*The Guardian*,). Vondrousova’s post-match comment, “She was shouting all over the court,” suggests Raducanu’s vocal intensity could further disrupt Sabalenka (*ProFootballNetwork*,).[](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/13391630/wimbledon-emma-raducanu-says-facing-aryna-sabalenka-next-isnt-unlucky-you-want-to-play-the-best)[](https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/wimbledon-day-5-preview-emma-raducanu-aryna-sabalenka-third-round)[](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/32498/13391302/wimbledon-emma-raducanu-beats-marketa-vondrousova-to-set-up-meeting-with-aryna-sabalenka)
**Conclusion**: Davenport sees Raducanu’s upset potential hinging on precise serving, creative aggression, and leveraging the Centre Court crowd. While Sabalenka’s power and experience make her the favorite, Raducanu’s grass-court aptitude (75% win rate at Wimbledon, *Outlook India*,) and recent form make the match a “blockbuster” (*Sky Sports*,). If Raducanu executes Davenport’s strategy, she could reach the fourth round, matching her 2021 and 2024 Wimbledon runs
