Coco Gauff, the 2023 US Open champion, faces a pivotal opportunity to challenge world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka at the 2025 US Open, starting August 24, but a major threat from Iga Swiatek and emerging stars like Victoria Mboko looms large. Gauff’s coaching shake-up, recent form struggles, and a favorable yet tricky draw position her as a contender to dethrone the defending champion, though analysts question her consistency.
Gauff’s Path and Preparation
Seeded third, Gauff opens against Ajla Tomljanovic, with potential clashes against Donna Vekic (R2), Magda Frech (R3), and Naomi Osaka or Daria Kasatkina (R4). A quarterfinal against 2025 Australian Open champion Madison Keys and a semifinal against Swiatek await. After averaging 9.2 double faults per match in recent losses, including a 6-1, 6-4 defeat to Mboko at the Canadian Open, Gauff split with coaches Matt Daly and Jean-Christophe Faurel, hiring biomechanics expert Gavin MacMillan, who fixed Sabalenka’s serve in 2022. MacMillan’s focus on her serve’s ball toss and forehand fluidity aims to boost her 48.5% second-serve win rate, lagging behind Sabalenka’s 52%. Gauff, confident in her home crowd’s energy, told E! News, “New York brings out my best.”
Sabalenka’s Dominance and Vulnerabilities
Sabalenka, the top seed and 2024 US Open champion, holds a commanding 12,420 WTA points, leading Gauff by 4,751. Her 2025 hard-court record includes titles in Adelaide and Miami, with runner-up finishes at the Australian Open and Indian Wells. However, her French Open final loss to Gauff (6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4) exposed vulnerabilities under pressure, with 70 unforced errors. A potential final against Gauff could hinge on their head-to-head, split at 5-5, though Gauff won their last major clash in 2023 (2-6, 6-3, 6-2). A Sky Sports panel led by Martina Navratilova favors Sabalenka or Swiatek, citing Gauff’s unpredictability.
Emerging Threats
Swiatek, seeded second, fresh off a Cincinnati title, poses a significant challenge with her 2022 US Open crown and 7-3 head-to-head edge over Gauff. Mboko, the 18-year-old Canadian ranked No. 24, stunned the tennis world with her Canadian Open win and is a dark horse, with Mats Wilander noting her “fearless” play. Other contenders include Keys, Jessica Pegula, and Mirra Andreeva, backed by Rick Macci to potentially upset the field. Gauff’s resilience, akin to Emma Raducanu’s or Luke Littler’s under pressure, will be tested.
Outlook
Gauff’s path to dethroning Sabalenka requires overcoming her serving woes and capitalizing on her 2023 US Open experience. With MacMillan’s technical tweaks and Arthur Ashe Stadium’s support, she has a shot to reclaim glory, but Swiatek and Mboko loom as major threats. As one X post stated, “Coco’s got the heart, but her serve needs to deliver” (@TennisFanUSA, August 21, 2025).
